ASML has kicked off 2026 with impressive first-quarter results that surpassed market expectations, alongside a strong forecast for the second quarter.
This performance is a clear signal that the company's anticipated growth for the year is well underway. Net sales hit €8.77 billion, beating the consensus estimate, and the Q2 guidance points to continued strength. This positive start upgrades the outlook from the more cautious tone set last year, which was clouded by tariff uncertainties.
So, what's fueling this momentum? The strong results are supported by three powerful, interconnected drivers that have gained strength since last summer.
First is the AI-driven semiconductor boom. ASML's largest customer, TSMC, is investing a record $52–$56 billion this year to expand its capacity for advanced AI chips. This massive spending directly translates into high demand for ASML's critical EUV lithography machines, which are essential for producing the most powerful chips.
Second, we're seeing a decisive recovery in the memory chip market. This is especially true for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), a key component for AI accelerators. Major memory makers like SK hynix and Micron are ramping up their investments. SK hynix, for example, recently filed to purchase nearly $8 billion worth of EUV tools from ASML, providing strong visibility into future demand.
Finally, geopolitical factors are playing a role. Export controls implemented by the U.S. and the Netherlands have limited ASML's sales of certain equipment to China. An indirect consequence is that ASML's sales mix is shifting more heavily toward its most advanced and profitable EUV systems for customers in other regions, which has been a net positive for its financial performance.
Together, these forces—soaring AI demand, a resurgent memory market, and a favorable shift in product mix—create a compelling growth narrative for ASML. The strong first-quarter results provide tangible proof that the semiconductor upcycle is in full swing.
- EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) Lithography: An advanced technology that uses extreme ultraviolet light to print microscopic circuits on silicon wafers, enabling the creation of smaller, more powerful chips.
- Capex (Capital Expenditure): Funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets such as property, plants, buildings, technology, or equipment.
- HBM (High Bandwidth Memory): A type of high-performance computer memory used in conjunction with high-performance graphics accelerators and network devices.