ASML’s Chief Financial Officer, Roger Dassen, recently issued a crucial warning to policymakers: be careful that efforts to restrict chip technology don't inadvertently create global supply shortages.
His message comes at a critical time, right in the middle of the ongoing tech rivalry between the U.S. and China. For years, the U.S. and its allies, including the Netherlands, have been tightening export controls on advanced chip-making equipment to China. Dassen's core argument is simple yet powerful: demand for chips is global and persistent. If you block chip production in one country, the demand doesn't just disappear. Instead, companies will find ways to build that capacity somewhere else. This shifts the geography of production but doesn't reduce the overall need for chips.
The timing of this warning is no coincidence. First, it directly addresses ongoing policy debates in Washington. Lawmakers are currently reworking proposals to tighten controls on semiconductor tools. Dassen is cautioning against overly broad rules that could choke off the supply of mature-node chips—the less advanced but essential chips that power everything from cars to industrial machinery. This call for precision seems to be resonating, as seen when U.S. lawmakers recently narrowed the scope of the proposed MATCH Act, moving away from a blanket ban toward a more targeted approach.
Second, this is all happening against a backdrop of soaring demand. The AI revolution has triggered a massive capital expenditure cycle, with companies scrambling to get the tools needed to produce powerful new chips. ASML itself has reported record orders and raised its financial outlook, signaling that its equipment is in extremely high demand. This combination of tight supply and policy friction creates a risky situation where even small miscalculations in regulations could lead to significant bottlenecks, impacting industries worldwide.
This isn't a new phenomenon, either. Dassen's 'somewhere else' framework is validated by long-term trends. Initiatives like the U.S. CHIPS Act have already been redirecting billions of dollars to build new semiconductor factories in the U.S., Europe, and other allied nations. These policies, combined with export controls, have been actively reshaping the global supply chain for years, proving that capital and capacity will indeed move to where they are welcome and permitted.
Ultimately, the CFO's plea is not a call to abandon export controls entirely. Rather, it's an appeal for strategic precision. The goal is to find a balance that restricts access to the most sensitive technologies without causing self-inflicted damage to the global economy that relies on a steady supply of all kinds of chips.
- Mature-node chips: Semiconductors made with older, less complex manufacturing processes. They are still vital for many products, including cars, home appliances, and industrial equipment.
- DUV immersion tools: A type of lithography machine made by ASML, essential for mass-producing many of the world's most common chips. They are a key focus of export control policies.
- CHIPS Act: A U.S. law that provides significant government subsidies to encourage semiconductor research, development, and manufacturing within the United States.