A new report from Bank of America has put a concrete number on what was once just a rumor: a potential Apple-Intel foundry partnership could be massive for the semiconductor equipment industry.
The bank's analysis suggests a compelling "what if" scenario. If Apple formally partners with Intel to manufacture its most advanced chips, like those for the iPhone, Intel would need a significant capacity upgrade. This would directly translate into huge orders for European toolmakers. Specifically, it could mean up to €4.6 billion in new orders for ASML, the sole supplier of critical EUV lithography machines. That figure represents over 14% of ASML's entire revenue from last year. Similarly, demand for advanced packaging tools from companies like BESI could more than double.
So, why is this scenario being taken seriously now? It’s because several key pieces are falling into place. First, recent reports indicate that Apple and Intel have already reached a preliminary agreement, moving the idea from speculation to a tangible possibility. Second, this aligns perfectly with Intel's new strategy. Under the name 'Intel Foundry', the company is aggressively courting external customers and has secured billions in U.S. government funding through the 'CHIPS Act' to build state-of-the-art factories on American soil. Intel has also demonstrated its technological readiness by installing the industry's first next-generation 'High-NA EUV' machine, proving it can produce the chips of the future.
Furthermore, this potential deal fits into two powerful macro trends. One is the geopolitical push for on-shoring—that is, bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. to create more resilient supply chains. An Apple-Intel deal would be a landmark achievement for this policy. The other trend is the technological shift towards advanced packaging. As chips become more complex, especially for AI, simply shrinking transistors isn't enough. Technologies like 'hybrid bonding' are needed to stack chips together, and having both chip manufacturing and packaging in the same geographic region is a major strategic advantage.
In conclusion, while an official deal for iPhone chips has not been confirmed, Bank of America’s analysis provides a credible ceiling for what could be a transformative partnership. It quantifies how a single customer decision could kickstart a new equipment investment cycle, reinforcing the U.S. on-shoring narrative and benefiting key European suppliers.
- Glossary
- Foundry: A company that manufactures semiconductor chips for other companies that design them, like how a printing press prints books for various authors.
- EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) Lithography: A highly advanced technology using a specific wavelength of light to print incredibly small and complex circuits onto silicon wafers. It is essential for making the most powerful chips.
- Hybrid Bonding: An advanced packaging technique that directly connects semiconductor chips to each other without traditional solder bumps, allowing for faster and more efficient communication between them.