Global chemical company BASF has reaffirmed a powerful forecast: by 2030, the growth in China's chemical market is expected to be nearly three times larger than the rest of the world's combined growth.
This isn't just a simple prediction; it's a conclusion drawn from clear, ongoing trends. The 'nearly 3x' figure comes from an analysis showing Greater China contributing about 75% of all new growth in the global chemical industry through 2030, leaving just 25% for every other country combined. This dynamic is already playing out, as China accounted for a staggering 86% of global chemical growth in 2024, showing the concentration of the market is well underway.
The reasons behind this shift can be understood through three main factors. First is China's focused industrial strategy. The government is actively promoting advanced manufacturing and the petrochemical sector. This policy support is paired with massive investments in new, highly efficient production facilities. A prime example is BASF's own €8.7 billion Zhanjiang Verbund site, a state-of-the-art complex designed to serve China's growing demand directly from within its borders.
Second, while China is building up, other regions are scaling back. The European chemical sector, once a global leader, is described as being in 'crisis mode.' Plant closures and capacity reductions are becoming more common due to high energy costs and weaker economic prospects. This rationalization in Europe and modest growth in other developed markets mechanically increases China's relative share of the total global growth.
Finally, recent geopolitical shocks have solidified the case for local production. The war-driven oil price spike in early 2026, which saw Brent crude jump over 50%, exposed the vulnerabilities of long-distance supply chains. For companies like BASF, producing chemicals inside China for the Chinese market is no longer just an option for growth—it's a crucial strategy for managing risk and ensuring supply security. This makes the shift toward China feel less like a choice and more like an inevitability.
- Verbund: A German term used by BASF that refers to highly integrated production sites. At a Verbund site, the by-products of one plant are used as the raw materials (feedstock) for another, increasing efficiency and reducing waste.
- Steam Cracker: The core unit of a modern petrochemical complex. It uses high temperatures (steam) to 'crack' large hydrocarbon molecules from raw materials like naphtha into smaller, more valuable building-block chemicals like ethylene and propylene.
- Feedstock: The raw materials used to supply a manufacturing process. In the chemical industry, this typically refers to crude oil derivatives like naphtha or natural gas liquids.