China's National Bureau of Statistics has released its 2025 population survey, painting a clear picture of a nation that is aging faster than anticipated.
The latest data confirms that China's population is smaller, older, and more urban. The total population stands at 1.405 billion, with the share of those aged 60 and over surging to 22.86%, a significant jump from 18.70% in the 2020 census. Meanwhile, the working-age population (15-59) has shrunk by approximately 24.5 million people in just five years, confirming the trend of negative natural growth.
This demographic shift didn't happen overnight. First, it's the long-term result of decades of low fertility rates. Second, recent economic headwinds, including high youth unemployment and a prolonged property market slump, have made young people hesitant to start families, which has further suppressed the birth rate. Third, previous policies like the three-child rule have not been sufficient to reverse the declining trend.
The most direct consequence of this shift is immense economic pressure. The old-age dependency ratio—the number of seniors for every 100 working-age people—has now reached 25.6. This is a critical tipping point, as it nearly equals the youth dependency ratio of 24.6, signaling a future where the burden of supporting the elderly will place a heavy strain on public finances, particularly pension and healthcare systems.
However, Beijing saw this coming and has already begun to act. The government started to gradually raise the national retirement age in 2025 and is rolling out aggressive pro-natal policies in 2026, including nationwide subsidies for childcare and making childbirth costs effectively free for many.
It's not all challenging news, though. The survey also highlights some positive developments that could offset the demographic drag. The urban population continues to grow, now at 67.74%, and the number of people with higher education has increased to over 272 million. These factors suggest a potential transition towards a smaller, but more skilled and productive, workforce.
- Old-Age Dependency Ratio: A measurement of the number of people aged 65 and over for every 100 people of working age (typically 15-64). A higher ratio indicates a greater financial burden on the working population.
- Floating Population: Refers to migrants in China who live and work in a different place from their registered household location (hukou). This group is a key driver of urbanization.