Chinese state-owned oil giants are once again exploring the purchase of Russian crude oil shipped by sea. This cautious re-engagement comes after they halted such imports in late 2025 following stringent U.S. and UK sanctions.
The primary catalyst for this shift is a decision from Washington. Amid a supply crisis in the Strait of Hormuz that pushed global benchmark Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a temporary, 30-day waiver. This waiver, known as General License 133, specifically allowed Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil that was already at sea, a move aimed at preventing further price spikes and stabilizing the volatile energy market.
So, why is this India-specific waiver causing ripples in China? It's all about perception and risk assessment. First, let's look back. In October 2025, when the U.S. and UK sanctioned major Russian oil companies like Rosneft and Lukoil, China's large state-owned refiners immediately stopped buying seaborne Russian crude to avoid potential secondary sanctions. Since then, only smaller, independent Chinese refiners, known as "teapots," continued to import Russian oil. Second, the U.S. waiver for India, while narrow, sent a powerful signal to the market: during a severe supply shock, Washington may prioritize global price stability over the strictest enforcement of sanctions. This has lowered the perceived risk for other major state-backed buyers like those in China.
This change in perception has immediate market consequences. Indian refiners moved quickly to buy millions of barrels of Russian oil as soon as the waiver was announced, tightening the availability of prompt supply in Asia. This has, in turn, created urgency for Chinese buyers to secure their own supplies. If Chinese state firms re-enter the market, even on a small scale, the impact could be significant. It could provide a substantial revenue boost to Russia and further tighten the regional market for sour crude, a type of oil that Russia is a major supplier of. These Chinese companies are making a calculated bet that the U.S. will maintain this flexible stance while the Hormuz crisis continues.
- Sour Crude: Crude oil with a high sulfur content. It requires more complex refining processes compared to low-sulfur 'sweet crude' but is common in many parts of the world, including the Middle East and Russia.
- Secondary Sanctions: Sanctions imposed by one country on third-party countries, companies, or individuals for engaging in business with the primary sanctioned country.
- OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control): A financial intelligence and enforcement agency of the U.S. Treasury Department that administers and enforces economic and trade sanctions.
