Germany's Commerzbank has presented a new outlook for two key industrial commodities, forecasting a steady rise for copper and a gradual decline for oil.
Let's first look at copper. The bank projects its price will reach $14,250 per ton by mid-2027. This forecast balances two conflicting forces. In the short term, the market is actually facing a surplus of refined copper, with inventories at multi-year highs, which has kept recent price movements in check. However, the long-term picture is much more bullish, driven by powerful structural trends.
First, the global energy transition requires massive grid modernization, which is incredibly copper-intensive. Second, the explosive growth of AI and data centers is creating unprecedented demand for electricity, necessitating further grid expansion. For instance, China's State Grid alone plans to invest around 4 trillion CNY by 2030. A final piece of the puzzle is policy risk. The potential for the U.S. to impose tariffs on refined copper from 2027 could incentivize companies outside the U.S. to stockpile the metal in advance, tightening supply and pushing prices up.
Now, for oil. Commerzbank sees Brent crude hitting $90 per barrel by September 2026 before easing to $85 by the year's end. This path reflects a market that is currently tight. Supply is being constrained by OPEC+ production policies and logistical disruptions in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also confirms this view, noting a supply deficit that is likely to persist into the fourth quarter.
However, this tightness is expected to ease toward the end of the year. This normalization is based on a couple of factors. There's an anticipation of some progress in resolving logistical bottlenecks and the planned release of 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which will provide a significant supply cushion. Therefore, the forecast suggests a summer of high prices followed by a gentle slide downwards as these factors come into play. In essence, Commerzbank’s analysis suggests investors should look past near-term noise and focus on the larger structural stories shaping each commodity's future.
- OPEC+: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. This group coordinates petroleum policies to stabilize oil markets.
- Brent Crude: A major benchmark price for crude oil purchases worldwide, sourced from the North Sea.
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): An emergency fuel supply of crude oil maintained by the United States Department of Energy.