The European Union is now officially warning that the continent must prepare for a long-lasting and severe energy shock.
The immediate trigger for this alert is the escalating conflict in Iran, which has effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy trade. This isn't just a problem of crude oil supply; it's a critical disruption to the flow of refined products like diesel and jet fuel, which Europe heavily imports from the Gulf region. The timing is particularly challenging, as the last kerosene shipments that passed through the strait before the disruption are expected to arrive around April 10, raising the risk of acute shortages shortly after.
This geopolitical event has exposed Europe's underlying vulnerabilities. First, since imposing sanctions on Russia, the EU has become structurally dependent on imported middle distillates (diesel and kerosene) from other regions, especially the Middle East. Second, this import crisis coincides with a heavier-than-usual maintenance season for European refineries, which further tightens the regional supply. Finally, with gas storage levels finishing the winter well below previous years, the energy system's overall buffer is thinner than before.
Consequently, the market reaction has been swift and severe. Brent crude prices have surged to around $115 per barrel, while European natural gas (TTF) prices spiked to their highest levels since early 2023. This price surge is directly fueling a re-acceleration in inflation, complicating the European Central Bank's policy decisions. In a sign of the crisis's gravity, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has already authorized a record 400 million-barrel release from emergency stockpiles, emphasizing that these reserves are a temporary bridge, not a permanent solution.
Faced with this reality, Brussels has shifted its policy from monitoring and reassurance to active contingency planning. The conversation has moved beyond managing high prices to preventing actual physical shortages. This is why previously unthinkable measures, such as coordinated fuel rationing for specific sectors and further releases from strategic reserves, are now being seriously considered. The EU now believes it must prepare for a prolonged period of disruption, even if a ceasefire in Iran is achieved quickly.
- Strait of Hormuz: A narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean. It is one ofs the world's most important strategic chokepoints for oil and gas shipments.
- Middle distillates: A category of refined petroleum products that includes jet fuel, kerosene, and diesel fuel. Europe has a structural deficit in these products.
- Fuel rationing: A government-mandated restriction of people's access to fuel to conserve supplies during a shortage. It can involve limiting driving days or setting purchase quotas.