Gartner has issued a significant forecast for 2026, predicting a sharp drop in PC and smartphone shipments due to soaring memory prices.
This isn't just a typical market fluctuation. The core reason is the AI boom, which is causing a massive shift in semiconductor manufacturing priorities. Chipmakers are dedicating more production capacity to high-performance memory like HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), essential for AI servers. This leaves less capacity for the general-purpose DRAM and NAND memory used in our everyday PCs and smartphones, creating a structural supply shortage.
This situation didn't happen overnight; a clear causal chain led us here. First, the trend began over a year ago as major players like SK Hynix and Micron pivoted their investments and production towards the highly profitable HBM market. Second, by late 2025, the squeeze became intense. Industry reports from firms like TrendForce and executives from companies like Phison warned that NAND prices were skyrocketing and that 2026 production was effectively 'sold out.' Third, this led to unusual market behavior, such as a temporary surge in PC sales in late 2025 as consumers bought devices ahead of the expected price hikes. This pull-forward in demand only set the stage for a sharper decline in 2026.
Gartner's numbers show this direct impact. A 130% surge in memory costs is expected to raise the final price of a PC by about 17% and a smartphone by 13%. This suggests memory accounts for roughly 10-13% of the total BOM (Bill of Materials) for these devices. Faced with these higher costs, manufacturers are likely to scale back on cheaper, low-margin models and focus on the premium segment where they can better absorb the price increases. The era of sub-$500 PCs could effectively end by 2028.
In essence, the warning from Gartner highlights a major ripple effect from the AI revolution. A supply bottleneck in high-end chips is reshaping the entire consumer electronics landscape, leading to higher prices, lower shipment volumes, and an accelerated push towards premium-only devices.
- Glossary
- HBM (High Bandwidth Memory): A type of high-performance memory crucial for AI processors, which handles massive amounts of data very quickly.
- BOM (Bill of Materials): A list of all the raw materials, components, and parts needed to manufacture a product.
- ASP (Average Selling Price): The average price at which a particular product is sold.