The waiting time for new gas turbines, a critical component for power generation, has stretched to over three years, with some industry-wide delays reaching five to seven years.
This situation stems from a powerful collision of surging demand and constrained supply. The primary driver on the demand side is the explosive growth of artificial intelligence and data centers. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that electricity consumption from data centers could double by 2030. This forecast is already becoming a reality, as U.S. grid planners like PJM are revising their load forecasts upward to account for the immense power needs of these new facilities. This creates a sudden, sustained, and massive demand for new power generation capacity.
However, the supply side is struggling to keep up for several key reasons. First, the market for large-frame gas turbines is an oligopoly, dominated by just a few companies: GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power. This limited supplier base cannot rapidly scale production. Second, the manufacturing sector faces a critical shortage of skilled labor, such as machinists and welders, who are essential for building these complex machines. Third, the supply chain for specialized components, like large castings and forgings, is itself a bottleneck, with long production cycles and limited capacity.
The direct consequence is a massive backlog of orders. Major manufacturers report that their production slots are sold out for years, with orders stretching into the 2030s. GE Vernova, for instance, saw its gas power backlog and slot reservations jump from 62 GW to 83 GW in a single quarter in late 2025. This makes it clear that the long lead times reported by Mitsubishi are not an isolated issue but a sector-wide reality. For customers, the focus of project planning has shifted dramatically from selecting the best equipment to simply securing a production slot years in the future.
In essence, the gas turbine bottleneck is a clear example of a structural imbalance where a technology-driven demand shock has overwhelmed a rigid and slow-to-adapt industrial supply base. This dynamic is expected to define the power sector for years to come.
- Gas Turbine: A type of internal combustion engine that converts the energy from burning fuel into mechanical energy, which is then used to generate electricity.
- Oligopoly: A market structure in which a small number of firms has the large majority of market share.
- Lead Time: The delay between the initiation and execution of a process. In this context, it's the time from placing an order for a turbine to its delivery.