Goldman Sachs Cuts 2027 Brent Forecast to $80 on Supply Growth and Weaker Demand, Keeps Late 2026 at $90

Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2027 average Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 per barrel, while maintaining its $90 forecast for the end of 2026.

This long-term adjustment reflects expectations of increased supply from non-OPEC countries like Brazil and Guyana, combined with weakening global demand.

This creates a "two-speed" market outlook: short-term prices remain high due to current supply disruptions, but a rebalancing is expected in 2027.

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Goldman Sachs has updated its oil price forecast, presenting a two-part story for the market.

The bank holds its late-2026 forecast for Brent crude at a firm $90 per barrel but has lowered its average 2027 forecast to $80. This suggests that while current geopolitical issues, like disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, are keeping prices high in the short term, the fundamental picture is expected to shift significantly next year.

A key reason for this expected shift is the rise of non-OPEC supply. First, countries in South America are ramping up production. Brazil's Petrobras recently reported a more than 16% year-over-year increase in output, and new projects in Guyana, like the FPSO One Guyana, are steadily coming online. This wave of new oil provides a cushion that is expected to cap prices in 2027.

On the other side of the equation, global demand is looking softer than previously anticipated. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has pointed to a potential demand contraction this year, and Goldman's own analysts have noted weaker-than-expected consumption in major economies like China and Europe. A lower starting point for demand makes it easier for the new supply to balance the market at a lower price point next year.

Even OPEC+'s recent actions support this long-term view. While the group has announced several quota hikes, these are largely symbolic as long as shipping routes remain constrained. However, they signal that significant spare capacity is waiting on the sidelines, ready to be deployed once the situation normalizes. This reinforces the idea that oil prices are unlikely to stay elevated indefinitely.

In essence, Goldman's forecast is a story of short-term tightness giving way to long-term balance. The combination of rising non-OPEC supply, softening demand, and available OPEC+ spare capacity creates a compelling case for oil prices to cool down to around the $80 mark in 2027, even as the market navigates near-term risks.

Non-OPEC: Oil-producing countries that are not members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Their production levels are a key factor in global supply.
Brent Crude: A major benchmark price for oil purchases worldwide, extracted from the North Sea.
FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading): A type of floating vessel used by the offshore oil and gas industry for the production and processing of hydrocarbons, and for the storage of oil.