Goldman Sachs projects that Northwest European gas storage will enter the 2026/27 winter at just 74% capacity, its leanest pre-winter cushion since 2013.
This forecast, paired with a stable winter price target of €41/MWh, paints a picture of a market that is 'tight but not in crisis'. Recent news, like a preliminary U.S.-Iran deal, has taken some of the edge off prices, but the underlying supply fragility keeps a significant risk premium baked in. This explains why Goldman is holding its forecast steady rather than lowering it.
So, how did Europe arrive at this precarious position? The story begins with a fundamentally weak starting point. First, the 2025/26 winter ended with historically low inventory levels. Dutch storage sites, for example, were reported to be near just 6% full in late March. This was a direct result of the fastest storage withdrawals in five years during January, which left the continent with a significant deficit to overcome.
Second, just as the crucial injection season began, geopolitical turmoil struck. Disruptions to Qatari LNG production and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in March and April severely choked off supply. This logistical shock created a major setback for refilling efforts right out of the gate. Third, market economics failed to provide an incentive to store gas. The price difference, or 'spread', between imported LNG and the European TTF benchmark was too narrow. This made it unprofitable for companies to buy LNG cargoes and inject them into storage, further slowing the refill rate through spring.
Adding to this picture is a subtle but important shift in EU policy. While a 90% storage target remains, regulators introduced more flexibility on timing. This reduced the urgency for companies to fill storage to the brim by a fixed date, encouraging a more 'efficient' approach guided by costs rather than a 'maximum fill' mandate. Ultimately, Europe's gas balance is a delicate one. The low storage levels and geopolitical risks justify a price in the €40s. However, expanding LNG supply from new U.S. facilities like Golden Pass provides a crucial safety valve, preventing a return to the crisis-level prices of the past.
- TTF (Title Transfer Facility): The leading virtual trading point for natural gas in Europe, serving as the continent's primary price benchmark.
- LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): Natural gas that has been cooled down to a liquid state for ease and safety of non-pressurized storage or transport.
- Spread: In this context, the price difference between LNG delivered to Europe and the TTF gas price. A narrow spread reduces the financial incentive to buy LNG and put it into storage.