HSBC has released a remarkably optimistic forecast for Samsung Electronics, setting a new target price of ₩300,000 and predicting a 2026 operating profit of ₩220 trillion.
This projection isn't based on typical market cycles; it's rooted in the belief that we are entering an AI-driven 'memory supercycle'. This boom is centered on high-performance chips like High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which are essential for training and running AI models, alongside conventional DRAM and NAND memory. The demand from AI platforms, led by companies like Nvidia, is now the primary force shaping Samsung's earnings potential.
Several recent events strongly support this view. First, and most importantly, news from February and March 2026 shows a dramatic acceleration. Samsung and other memory makers notified customers of significant DRAM price hikes, and Samsung reportedly increased prices for its next-generation HBM4 chips by 20-30%. Second, this was compounded by Samsung successfully completing Nvidia's qualification for HBM4, paving the way for large-scale shipments in the second half of the year. This directly addresses past concerns about Samsung's position in the high-margin HBM market.
Third, these immediate catalysts build on a solid foundation laid in late 2025. Industry forecasters like Gartner and WSTS had already predicted a strong semiconductor market rebound for 2026, led by memory chips. Furthermore, Samsung's own record-breaking earnings in Q4 2025 signaled that the recovery was already well underway, providing a strong baseline for the supercycle's takeoff.
Together, these developments change the entire narrative. What looked like a standard recovery in late 2025 now appears to be the early stage of an unprecedented surge. The price hikes and Nvidia qualification provide concrete evidence that justifies HSBC's forecast, which is over 20% higher than the market consensus. The question is no longer if a recovery will happen, but how high this supercycle can push Samsung's profitability.
- HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory): A type of high-performance memory chip that stacks memory dies vertically to provide much faster data transfer speeds, crucial for AI accelerators.
- Supercycle: An extended period of unusually strong demand and growth in an industry, often leading to record profits and stock prices.
- ASP (Average Selling Price): The average price at which a particular product, like a memory chip, is sold during a specific period.