Iran recently announced that 35 commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in a single day under the supervision of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
On the surface, this might sound like good news, suggesting a return to normalcy in one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. However, the reality is more complex. This figure, while an increase from the 26 and 31 ships reported on previous days, represents only about a quarter of the pre-crisis traffic. This isn't a reopening; it's a carefully controlled release of pressure by Tehran, signaling that it remains firmly in charge.
To understand why this is happening, we need to look back a few weeks. The IRGC had effectively created a near-standstill in the strait, with some days seeing zero commercial transits. This was achieved through a coercive strategy: laying additional sea mines, seizing vessels, and warning that any ship outside designated lanes would be stopped by force. This created a high-risk environment that deterred most commercial operators. This context is key because it allowed Iran to present the subsequent, small increases in traffic (from 0 to 26, then to 35) as a form of 'progress' that it alone controls.
This strategy had a significant economic impact. The heightened risk caused war-risk insurance premiums for vessels to skyrocket, increasing from around 0.25% of a ship's value to as high as 3%. For a large oil tanker, this meant paying millions of dollars for a single voyage, a prohibitive cost for many. This economic pressure effectively forced shipping companies into a corner, compelling them to seek direct arrangements with the IRGC to ensure safe passage. Iran essentially established a checkpoint system where it decides who gets to pass and when.
For the global economy, this managed trickle of ships offers only marginal relief. The world energy market remains undersupplied, and Hormuz is a vital artery for both oil and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas), with about one-fifth of global LNG supplies normally passing through it. While bypass pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE can handle some of the crude oil, they cannot replace the LNG volumes. Therefore, systemic risk and high costs persist, impacting energy prices worldwide.
In conclusion, the announcement of 35 ships is less about restoring global trade and more about Iran consolidating its geopolitical leverage. By controlling the flow of traffic, Tehran can influence energy markets, apply pressure on its adversaries, and dictate the terms of any future diplomatic negotiations. The Strait of Hormuz is not operating under the principle of free navigation but under a new reality of a managed checkpoint, and the stability of global energy supplies remains subject to this fragile, politically charged arrangement.
- Strait of Hormuz: A narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, it is one of the world's most important strategic chokepoints for oil and gas shipments.
- War-Risk Insurance: A type of insurance that covers damages to a vessel or cargo due to acts of war, such as invasion, insurrection, rebellion, and hijacking.
- LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): Natural gas that has been cooled down to liquid form for ease and safety of non-pressurized storage or transport.