The recently warming relationship between Iran and Pakistan appears to be entering a cooling-off period.
The primary driver behind this shift is escalating tension along their shared border. First, Iran's announcement on May 19 that it had arrested 19 individuals from “Israeli-linked” cells in the Sistan-Baluchestan province, which borders Pakistan, has heightened its security sensitivities. This follows Iranian action against the militant group Jaish al-Adl in late April. Historically, such incidents make Tehran less tolerant of what it perceives as security gaps on Pakistan's side, leading to a chill in cross-border cooperation. This isn't a new problem; recurring security incidents, such as attacks on Pakistani nationals in 2025 and major counter-insurgency operations in early 2026, form a persistent backdrop of mistrust.
Second, the diplomatic momentum that had been building has faltered. Pakistan had recently elevated its ties with Iran by acting as a key mediator in talks between Tehran and Washington. However, negotiations in Islamabad stalled after April 12, failing to produce an agreement. As maritime frictions in the Gulf between the U.S. and Iran persisted, Tehran hardened its public stance against negotiating under pressure. This effectively dissolved the shared diplomatic project that had closely aligned the two neighbors, reducing the immediate incentive for tight coordination.
Finally, economic cooperation is struggling to move from paper to reality. While there have been positive signs, such as Pakistan's regulatory approval to import an additional 100 MW of electricity from Iran and the notification of six new transit corridors, practical implementation has been slow. The transit routes are not yet operational, and the new power line requires significant infrastructure investment. Overshadowing all of this is the persistent risk of U.S. sanctions, particularly concerning the long-delayed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. These execution gaps and external pressures make tangible economic progress fragile, despite the political will expressed in agreements.
In essence, a combination of renewed security concerns, stalled diplomatic efforts, and practical economic hurdles has collectively cooled the Iran-Pakistan relationship. The path forward will depend on their ability to de-escalate border tensions and translate economic agreements into concrete actions.
- Glossary
- IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A powerful branch of Iran's armed forces, responsible for national security.
- Sistan-Baluchestan: An economically underdeveloped and restive province in southeastern Iran, bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan.
- Sanctions: Economic penalties, such as trade barriers and financial restrictions, imposed by one country or a group of countries on another for political reasons.