A war of words has erupted between Iran and Israel, with global energy prices caught in the crossfire.
So, what's this all about? It boils down to a simple but critical question: can Iran still build and fire missiles? On March 19, 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a major victory, claiming Israeli strikes had completely destroyed Iran's ability to enrich uranium and produce ballistic missiles. Just a day later, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired back, insisting they were still producing missiles "even during war conditions." This public clash isn't just political posturing; it directly influences the perceived risk of shipping through the world's most important oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz.
To understand today's events, we need to look back at the escalating chain of events. First, this conflict didn't start yesterday. It's the culmination of months of rising tensions, with Israel launching a major military campaign in late February to neutralize what it calls Iran's "axis of terror." Second, Israel launched a series of heavy strikes throughout March, targeting military sites, leadership complexes, and crucial energy infrastructure like the South Pars gas field. Netanyahu's victory declaration was the intended capstone of this campaign. However, and this is the third key point, Iran has consistently demonstrated it still has fight left. It retaliated with missile barrages and, most significantly, declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed" on March 3. Even Israel's own military admitted that about 40% of Iran's launchers remained intact after the initial strikes.
This is why the IRGC's statement is so important. It's a calculated move in an information war. By insisting their production lines are running, they aim to undermine Israel's victory narrative, deter a U.S.-led coalition from trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, and keep the pressure on global energy markets. We saw this play out in real-time as Brent crude oil prices surged to nearly $119 a barrel before easing slightly on news of a potential pause in strikes.
The most likely reality is somewhere in the middle. Israel's campaign has undoubtedly inflicted serious damage, degrading Iran's infrastructure. But "degraded" is not the same as "destroyed." Iran likely retains a residual, if diminished, capability to produce and launch missiles from its stockpiles. This lingering threat means the war premium on oil is here to stay until maritime traffic through Hormuz is safely and reliably restored.
- IRGC: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces.
- Strait of Hormuz: A narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, through which about a fifth of the world's oil consumption passes.
- War Premium: An additional cost added to the price of oil to account for the risk of supply disruptions due to conflict.