A recent Israeli media report has significantly changed the outlook on the conflict with Iran, suggesting it will last at least five more weeks.
This forecast is a game-changer because it shifts the narrative from a quick, surgical strike to a long, drawn-out campaign. For global markets, this means the spike in oil prices isn't just a temporary scare; it's the beginning of a sustained period of high energy costs. The key concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil passes. A multi-week conflict puts this vital chokepoint at constant risk.
So, how did we get here? This development didn't happen in a vacuum. The groundwork was laid over several months. First, in the weeks leading up to this, the situation was already escalating. U.S. officials, including President Trump, began framing the operation in terms of "four to five weeks," preparing the public for a longer engagement. Simultaneously, Hezbollah opened a second front on the Israel-Lebanon border, stretching military resources and making a quick resolution less likely. These events primed the market to expect a sustained disruption, reflected in a 12% weekly surge in oil prices even before the "five weeks" announcement.
Second, the conflict transformed into a full-scale interstate war in late February. U.S. and Israeli strikes inside Iran, which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marked a point of no return. These actions had clear goals of degrading Iran's military capacity, a task that inherently requires weeks, not days, to accomplish.
And third, foundational events from last year set the stage. A brief 12-day war in June 2025 demonstrated that direct strikes were possible, while Iran's seizure of an oil tanker in December highlighted its ability to disrupt maritime trade in the Strait of Hormuz. These past incidents created a backdrop where any new conflict was likely to be prolonged and economically disruptive.
Ultimately, the "five more weeks" forecast connects these dots, confirming that the initial strikes were just the beginning. It solidifies the high risk premium on oil, ensures that consumers will continue to feel the pain at the pump, and puts immense pressure on policymakers and organizations like OPEC+ to navigate a period of heightened instability.
- Risk Premium: An additional amount of return an investor requires to hold a risky asset compared to a risk-free one. In this case, it's the extra cost added to oil prices due to the uncertainty and danger of conflict.
- Strait of Hormuz: A strategically important strait or narrow sea passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It is a critical chokepoint for global oil transportation.
- Brent Crude: A major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide.