Israel has signaled to the United States that its patience with diplomacy is running out, and it is prepared to resume military strikes against Iran.
So, what's driving this aggressive stance? The primary catalyst is the escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Iran's recent hostile actions in the Gulf have revived fears of a major supply disruption. This sent crude oil prices soaring, with analysts warning that any further escalation could push prices above $120 per barrel. For Israel, Iran's behavior is not just a regional threat but an act of economic coercion against the world, making diplomacy seem like a stalling tactic.
At the same time, diplomatic channels appear to be failing. The U.S. has publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's ceasefire proposals, and Israeli officials have dismissed the negotiations as a "waste of time." This perception is strengthened by reports of Iran's three-step plan, which includes a return to uranium enrichment—a scenario Israel finds unacceptable. This has led Israeli leadership to believe that Washington is already primed to support renewed military action, shifting their calculus from waiting for a green light to actively preparing for one.
This isn't happening in a vacuum, of course. The foundation for this tension was laid in February 2026, when a joint U.S.-Israeli operation struck key Iranian military and leadership targets. That event established a tit-for-tat dynamic that has defined the conflict since. Iran's subsequent retaliation against energy infrastructure in Qatar and other Gulf states broadened the conflict, framing Iran as an exporter of instability. For Israel, this history proves that only force can re-establish deterrence.
Ultimately, Israel's message today is a culmination of these factors: Iran's actions in the Gulf are seen as coercion, U.S. signals suggest alignment on a tougher stance, and the unresolved issue of Iran's nuclear program adds a sense of urgency. With talks faltering, Israel appears to believe that targeted military strikes are the only viable option left to reset the strategic balance.
- Strait of Hormuz: A narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It is the world's most important oil transit chokepoint.
- Risk Premium: The additional return an investor expects to receive for holding a risky asset compared to a risk-free one. In oil markets, it reflects the added price due to geopolitical instability.
- IAEA: The International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear watchdog, responsible for verifying that countries' nuclear programs are peaceful.