An Israeli airstrike has once again struck Beirut, reportedly eliminating a commander of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force and breaking a nearly month-long period of quiet in the capital.
This attack isn't an isolated incident but a continuation of a deliberate, long-term Israeli strategy often called a 'decapitation' campaign. The goal is to weaken Hezbollah by systematically removing its key leaders and operational planners. The primary target of this strategy has been the Radwan Force, an elite unit specifically trained for cross-border raids into northern Israel. By targeting its commanders, Israel aims to disrupt the unit's command, control, and ability to launch sophisticated attacks.
So, why now, especially with a truce in place? The recent U.S.-brokered ceasefire was fragile from the start. Crucially, it included clauses that allowed Israel to act against what it deemed 'imminent threats.' This created a significant loophole. In the days leading up to the strike, tensions were already high. Hezbollah drone attacks had wounded Israeli soldiers, and Israel had responded with its own strikes in southern Lebanon. This tit-for-tat exchange created a 'pressure cooker' environment, making a high-stakes strike in the capital more likely.
The historical context for this is important. This strategy was firmly established by major operations, such as the September 2024 strike that killed the Radwan Force's chief, Ibrahim Aqil, and other senior commanders in Beirut. More recently, a large-scale strike on April 8 of this year reset the precedent for attacks on the capital, signaling that no area was off-limits.
This escalation has direct consequences for the global economy. Regional instability adds a 'war premium' to oil prices. With Brent crude already trading near $114 per barrel due to broader conflicts, a renewed focus on Beirut could add another $1 to $3 per barrel in the short term. The strike underscores the persistent volatility in the region, where a fragile truce can be shattered in an instant, with ripples felt far beyond the immediate conflict zone.
- Glossary -
- Radwan Force: Hezbollah's elite special operations unit, trained for offensive missions like infiltrating northern Israel.
- Decapitation Strike: A military strategy aimed at eliminating the leadership of an opposing force to disrupt its command and control.
- Rules of Engagement (ROE): Directives that define the circumstances, conditions, and limitations under which forces will initiate or continue combat with other forces.