The Japanese government has officially outlined its plan to build up to five next-generation innovative nuclear reactors to fill an expected power supply gap in the 2040s.
This move is fundamentally a response to pressing energy security challenges. Over the past year, the combined impact of a 44% surge in Brent crude oil prices and an 9% depreciation of the yen against the dollar has caused Japan's energy import costs to skyrocket by approximately 57%. As a nation heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels, this economic pressure has made securing a stable, domestically controlled energy source a top priority. The high wholesale electricity prices in the Tokyo area further underscore the strain on the power grid, highlighting the need for reliable baseload power.
Furthermore, this plan aligns with Japan's long-term decarbonization strategy. The 7th Strategic Energy Plan aims for nuclear power to constitute about 20% of the country's energy mix by 2040. However, many of Japan's existing reactors will reach their 60-year operational limit during the 2040s. Analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggests that Japan needs about 30 reactors operating consistently to meet this target. Simply extending the lifespan of old plants and restarting idled ones won't be enough to bridge the gap, making the construction of new reactors a necessary step.
This represents a strategic shift toward securing 'certainty' in its future energy supply. While the GX Decarbonization Power Supply Act now allows reactors to operate beyond 60 years, this process is fraught with regulatory uncertainty. Strict safety reviews by the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) can lead to unpredictable delays. By deciding to build new reactors, a process with a long lead time of 15-20 years, the government is creating a more predictable and stable portfolio to manage the retirement of older plants.
This policy is also supported by technological advancements. Japan is actively developing next-generation reactors like High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR) and Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFR). Collaborations, such as the design partnership between Framatome, JAEA, and MHI for SFRs, show that the domestic supply chain for these advanced technologies is taking shape. This ensures the plan is not just an ambition but is grounded in a tangible technological roadmap.
- Next-generation innovative reactors: Advanced nuclear reactors with enhanced safety features, higher efficiency, and greater flexibility compared to conventional reactors. Examples include High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR) and Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFR).
- GX (Green Transformation) Transition Bonds: Government-issued bonds to raise funds for public and private sector investments aimed at achieving a carbon-neutral society.
- JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange): The central marketplace where electricity is bought and sold in Japan. Its prices are a key indicator of supply and demand balance.