A recent report suggests a remarkable scenario: Samsung and SK hynix could see their NAND flash memory business profit margins soar to the 70% range in 2026.
The main driver behind this forecast is the AI revolution's shift from 'training' to 'inference.' While training AI models requires powerful processors, running those models to provide services demands massive amounts of fast, accessible storage. This has triggered an explosion in demand for high-performance enterprise SSDs (eSSDs), the backbone of modern data centers, causing a fundamental shift in the memory market's dynamics.
This demand surge is colliding with a tightly controlled supply, creating a perfect storm for prices. First, memory manufacturers are prioritizing their production lines for other high-margin components like HBM and server DRAM, leaving less capacity for NAND flash. Second, instead of building costly new factories, they are focusing on increasing storage density through technological advancements like stacking more layers (e.g., SK hynix's 321-layer QLC). This strategy increases storage per wafer but doesn't rapidly expand the total market supply, exacerbating the shortage.
The market is already reflecting this new reality. Kioxia, a major NAND producer, commented that its 2026 supply is effectively 'sold out.' Market research firm TrendForce has repeatedly revised its price forecasts upward, now expecting NAND prices to jump by as much as 55-60% in a single quarter. We're even seeing this at the product level, where the price of a single high-capacity SSD tripled in just nine months, demonstrating that these cost increases are being passed on through the value chain.
Ultimately, this isn't just a temporary spike; it's a structural change. The profitability engine of the memory industry, once centered on specialized HBM for AI training, is now expanding to include the general-purpose NAND memory used in everyday storage. This suggests a broader and more sustainable supercycle is underway, fueled by the insatiable data appetite of the AI era.
- NAND Flash: A type of non-volatile storage technology used in smartphones, computers, and data centers. It retains data even when power is turned off.
- Operating Profit Margin (OPM): A measure of profitability that indicates how much profit a company makes from its core business operations as a percentage of its revenue.
- Enterprise SSD (eSSD): A high-performance, high-reliability solid-state drive designed for the demanding 24/7 environment of data centers and enterprise servers.