The conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan has taken a dangerous turn, escalating from border skirmishes to direct airstrikes on the Afghan capital, Kabul.
This escalation isn't sudden but is the result of a chain of events, primarily driven by security concerns within Pakistan. First, Pakistan has been facing a surge in militant attacks, such as the deadly suicide bombing at an Islamabad mosque in early February. Islamabad publicly blamed an Afghan-based “mastermind” from ISIS-K for the attack. This provided the casus belli, or justification, for retaliation.
Following this, Pakistan began a series of cross-border operations. Initially, these were framed as strikes on “militant hideouts” in the eastern provinces. However, by late February, the strategy shifted dramatically. Pakistan launched airstrikes that hit Kabul itself and openly embraced the term “open war.” This was a major change, signaling a willingness to target the Taliban-run government's security infrastructure, not just remote camps.
This has created a dangerous tit-for-tat cycle. Afghanistan has reported thwarting subsequent attacks, including on the strategic Bagram Air Base, and has launched its own counter-attacks. Each action and reaction hardens the stance on both sides, making diplomatic off-ramps harder to find.
Furthermore, the international community is growing increasingly alarmed. The United States recently closed its consulate in Peshawar, its closest diplomatic mission to the border, highlighting the severe risk. Meanwhile, the human cost is mounting. The UN has reported civilian casualties, and aid groups estimate that over 115,000 people have been displaced by the fighting, a number likely to rise as the conflict reaches major urban centers.
- Glossary:
- Casus belli: A Latin expression for an act or event that provokes or is used to justify war.
- TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan): A Pakistani militant group, distinct from the Afghan Taliban, that seeks to overthrow the Pakistani government.