The predictable rhythm of the PC market has been thrown off course to start 2026.
Typically, the first quarter is a quiet period, but this year, PC manufacturers are rushing to buy components, pulling orders forward from later in the year. This unusual activity is creating a distorted picture of demand and sets up potential risks for the second half of the year. The core reason behind this frenzy is a severe shortage of memory chips, specifically DRAM and NAND.
So, what's causing this memory “super-squeeze”? The primary driver is the explosive growth in AI. Tech giants are buying up massive quantities of high-performance memory for their AI data centers, leaving less available for PCs. This has flipped the market in favor of sellers. First, memory prices are skyrocketing, with market intelligence firm TrendForce reporting potential price jumps of over 90% in a single quarter. Second, suppliers are tightening their grip. Memory maker Kioxia announced its entire 2026 NAND production is already sold out, and component makers like Phison are now demanding cash upfront from buyers. This forces PC makers (OEMs) to buy early to secure whatever supply they can at the best possible price.
This immediate panic is layered on top of two other powerful trends. The first is the end of support for Windows 10 in late 2025. This event is pushing many businesses to upgrade their entire fleet of computers. The second is the rise of “AI PCs,” which feature specialized processors (NPUs) and require more memory and faster storage to run new AI features. These new PCs have a higher BOM, making manufacturers even more sensitive to the soaring memory prices and giving them another strong reason to lock in component costs early.
In short, a perfect storm of AI-driven supply scarcity and a major PC upgrade cycle has caused everyone to rush their orders. While this makes the start of 2026 look very strong, it's essentially borrowing demand from the future. The big question is whether real consumer and business purchases will be strong enough later in the year to sustain this momentum. If not, the industry could face a sudden drop-off—an “air pocket”—in the second or third quarter as all this early inventory gets digested.
- OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer): A company that produces parts and equipment that may be marketed by another manufacturer. In this context, it refers to PC makers like Dell, HP, and Lenovo.
- BOM (Bill of Materials): A list of all the raw materials, sub-assemblies, and parts needed to manufacture a product. A higher BOM means the product is more expensive to make.
- NPU (Neural Processing Unit): A specialized processor designed to accelerate machine learning and AI tasks, now becoming a standard feature in new 'AI PCs'.