Poland has put its Swedish partner on notice, signaling that the future of its crucial 'Orka' submarine program hinges on one critical capability: long-range cruise missiles.
The core of this high-stakes negotiation is a significant gap between Poland's strategic needs and Sweden's current offer. While Poland selected Sweden and its A26 submarine as the preferred choice in late 2025, it has become clear that the deal, as it stands, does not include the long-range, land-attack cruise missiles (LACM) Warsaw considers essential for credible deterrence. This omission fundamentally undermines the primary goal of the Orka program—to possess a deep-strike capability from a stealthy, underwater platform.
This situation unfolded through a clear sequence of events. First, in November 2025, Poland chose Sweden, a decision reinforced by Sweden’s recent NATO accession and a shared focus on Baltic Sea security. This was followed by a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in December. Second, by early 2026, it was revealed in parliamentary defense committee sessions that the crucial cruise missile armament was not part of the ongoing talks. This created a major discrepancy between the program's public ambition and its contractual reality. Third, this discrepancy triggered the April 16th announcement from Poland's Deputy Defense Minister, who stated that if Sweden's final offer remains 'unsatisfactory,' Warsaw will open talks with other partners by the end of June.
This is not an empty threat, as Poland has viable alternatives. France’s Naval Group offers the Scorpène submarine, which can be armed with MBDA's proven Naval Cruise Missile (NCM). Meanwhile, South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean has aggressively marketed its KSS-III submarine, which features a Vertical Launching System (VLS) capable of firing a variety of missiles. The market has already reacted to this possibility, with Hanwha Ocean's stock price jumping after the Polish announcement, signaling investors see the competition as genuinely reopened.
Ultimately, Poland is using its leverage to force a resolution. It is telling Sweden that industrial cooperation and a shared operational environment are not enough. The final contract, expected by June 30, must either include a concrete and timely plan for integrating LACM capability or Poland is prepared to restart the competition to ensure its next-generation submarines have the strategic bite they were always intended to have.
- LACM (Land-Attack Cruise Missile): A guided missile used against targets on land that remains in the atmosphere and flies the major portion of its flight path at approximately constant speed.
- Orka Program: The codename for the Polish Navy's new-generation submarine acquisition program, intended to replace its aging submarine fleet.
- VLS (Vertical Launching System): An advanced missile launching system used on ships and submarines that fires missiles from vertical tubes, allowing for a higher rate of fire and a wider variety of missile types.