Russia and Belarus Signal Readiness to Use Nuclear Weapons to Defend Union State

A high-ranking Russian official explicitly stated that Russia and Belarus are prepared to use all means, including nuclear weapons, to ensure the security of their Union State.

This statement follows the expiration of the New START arms control treaty and recent joint Russia-Belarus nuclear drills, which Moscow justifies as a response to heightened NATO military activity.

Despite the heightened rhetoric, financial markets have shown a muted reaction, largely interpreting the move as coercive signaling rather than a precursor to imminent nuclear conflict.

A recent statement from a Russian Deputy Foreign Minister has once again brought the specter of nuclear conflict into sharp focus.

On June 8, 2026, Mikhail Galuzin declared that Russia and Belarus are prepared to use "all available means, including nuclear," to defend their Union State. This wasn't an isolated remark; it was the culmination of a carefully orchestrated series of events. Just weeks prior, in May 2026, Russia and Belarus conducted extensive joint nuclear drills. These exercises were not routine; they explicitly simulated the "preparation and use of nuclear forces," making Belarus’s role as a forward nuclear platform more tangible than ever.

This escalatory signaling is unfolding within a specific and concerning strategic environment. First, the last major arms control treaty between the U.S. and Russia, New START, expired in February 2026. This created a legal vacuum, removing the guardrails that had capped strategic arsenals for years. Without these limits, visible demonstrations of nuclear capability, like the recent drills, carry more weight. Second, Belarus has been legally and logistically prepared for this role. A 2022 referendum removed its non-nuclear status, and by late 2023, Russia had confirmed the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarusian territory. Third, Russia consistently points to NATO's own military exercises, such as 'Steadfast Dart' and 'Steadfast Deterrence', as the reason for its heightened posture, framing its actions as a necessary response to perceived threats.

Interestingly, financial markets seem to be looking past the alarming rhetoric. Following the May drills and the June 8 statement, key indicators like Brent crude oil and gold did not show a sustained risk premium. Prices rose briefly but quickly retreated. This suggests that investors and traders currently view this as coercive diplomacy—a high-stakes messaging campaign designed to deter Western support for Ukraine—rather than a genuine prelude to nuclear war.

In essence, we are witnessing a calculated strategy of nuclear signaling in a post-arms-control world. Russia is leveraging its nuclear arsenal and its alliance with Belarus to project strength and create strategic ambiguity, all while keeping the West on edge.

[Glossary]

New START: The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between the U.S. and Russia, limiting the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and bombs. It expired in February 2026.
Union State: A supranational union consisting of Russia and Belarus, aimed at deepening the relationship between the two nations through political, economic, and military integration.
Non-strategic nuclear weapons: Also known as tactical nuclear weapons, they are designed for use on a battlefield in a military situation. They are smaller in yield compared to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed to target cities and strategic infrastructure.