Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT) has taken a firm stance on its valuation of SpaceX, one of its largest holdings, ahead of its much-anticipated IPO.
Despite media speculation that SpaceX could go public at a valuation as high as $1.75 trillion, SMT is holding its stake at a more conservative $1.25 trillion. This isn't just a random number; it's a valuation rooted in discipline and verifiable data, a key principle for investment trusts managing unlisted assets. SMT is signaling to investors that it relies on concrete evidence, like third-party assessments and actual transaction prices, rather than speculative headlines.
So, what supports this $1.25 trillion figure? The story really begins in February 2026 with a pivotal event: SpaceX's acquisition of xAI. This move wasn't just an expansion; it was a fundamental transformation. First, it merged SpaceX's dominant launch capabilities and its rapidly growing Starlink satellite internet service with advanced AI development. This created a vertically integrated powerhouse in space, connectivity, and AI compute. Second, this integration changed how investors should value the company, moving its comparison group from just aerospace firms to include high-growth AI infrastructure and data-center giants. The $1.25 trillion valuation directly reflects the combined value stated during this merger.
Furthermore, SpaceX’s operational performance provides a solid foundation for this valuation. The company is on track for a record number of launches in 2026, demonstrating its manufacturing scale and the economic benefits of rocket reusability. At the same time, Starlink's subscriber base is surging, proving its business model and providing the durable revenue streams that IPO investors look for. These tangible successes, from launch milestones to user growth, de-risk the investment case ahead of the public offering.
For SMT, the IPO has significant implications. A successful listing at or above its carrying value would boost its Net Asset Value (NAV). For instance, an IPO at $1.75 trillion could increase SMT's NAV by approximately 7.5%. Perhaps more importantly, once SpaceX becomes a public company, it will no longer count toward SMT's 30% limit on private investments. This would automatically reduce SMT's private exposure from over 40% to a more comfortable level around 22%, resolving a major governance and portfolio constraint without needing to sell other private assets.
- Carrying Value: The value of an asset as it appears on a company's balance sheet. For SMT, it represents the 'fair value' they have assigned to their unlisted SpaceX stake.
- Net Asset Value (NAV): The total value of an investment fund's assets minus its liabilities, often expressed on a per-share basis. It represents the underlying value of the fund.
- S-1 Filing: A registration statement required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for U.S.-based companies planning to be listed on a national exchange. It contains detailed information about the company's business and financials.