The Trump administration has made a clear choice in its foreign policy priorities: first Iran, then Cuba. This decision to sequence major diplomatic efforts comes as President Trump stated he would "finish the war with Iran first" before engaging in a deal with Cuba, which he claims is eager to negotiate.
So, why is Iran the top priority? The answer lies in a narrow waterway called the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes through this strait, and the ongoing conflict has made this route risky. As a result, global oil prices have jumped about 15%, creating economic instability. For the White House, stabilizing this critical chokepoint and ending the war is paramount before it can dedicate significant attention elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Cuba is facing an intense crisis of its own, largely driven by U.S. policy. In January 2026, the U.S. issued an Executive Order that effectively created an "energy blockade" by sanctioning countries that supply oil to the island. The impact has been severe: airlines can't refuel at airports, the UN has warned of a potential humanitarian "collapse," and students are protesting power cuts. This immense pressure seems to be working, as Cuban President Díaz-Canel has now publicly confirmed that secret, back-channel talks with the U.S. are underway. Havana is feeling the squeeze and is signaling it's ready for a deal.
The U.S. strategy appears to be a classic "sticks and carrots" approach. The "stick" is the crippling fuel blockade, while the "carrots" are small gestures like $6 million in humanitarian aid and the prospect of a future agreement. Cuba has also made goodwill gestures, such as releasing 51 political prisoners, to show its seriousness. Everything is in place for a potential breakthrough, but the timing is entirely dependent on the situation in Iran.
Ultimately, the path to a U.S.-Cuba deal runs through the Middle East. Once the Iran conflict reaches a resolution, the administration will likely pivot its focus to Cuba, using the leverage from the Executive Order to negotiate a package. This deal would probably involve easing some fuel restrictions, especially for the private sector and humanitarian needs, in exchange for further concessions from Havana.
- Glossary
- Strait of Hormuz: A narrow, strategically important waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which a significant portion of the world's oil passes.
- Executive Order: A directive issued by the President of the United States that manages operations of the federal government and has the force of law.
- Back-channel talks: Unofficial, secret, or informal communications between parties, typically used to explore negotiation possibilities without formal commitments.