President Trump has signaled a significant shift in arms control policy, suggesting the U.S. should 'make a deal' on nuclear weapons with either Russia or China.
This statement comes at a critical time. The New START treaty, the last pillar of U.S.-Russian arms control, expired in February 2026, leaving the world without legally binding limits on the two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in over 50 years. This creates a dangerous vacuum that Washington is now keen to fill, but the strategic landscape has grown far more complex.
Several key factors are driving this diplomatic push. First, Russia's recent large-scale nuclear exercises, including the movement of munitions into Belarus, have raised alarms across NATO. These actions serve as a stark reminder of escalation risks, making even modest de-escalation channels with Moscow a high priority. Trump's proposal can be seen as a direct response to this heightened military signaling.
Second, China's position fundamentally shapes the negotiating strategy. Beijing has consistently rejected calls to join disarmament talks, arguing its arsenal is significantly smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia. Therefore, Trump’s 'either Russia or China' remark is less a choice and more a strategic sequence: initiate limited, 'verification-lite' talks with Russia to re-establish guardrails, while simultaneously probing whether China might agree to smaller transparency measures, such as dialogues on nuclear testing.
Finally, the immense cost of maintaining and modernizing nuclear arsenals provides a strong incentive for all parties. With U.S. nuclear spending projected to approach a trillion dollars over the next decade, and global defense expenditures soaring, even small agreements that enhance stability and predictability can be framed as fiscally responsible. The failure of multilateral forums like the NPT Review Conference to reach consensus further elevates the importance of direct, leader-level negotiations. Trump's 'deal-maker' approach aims to cut through this gridlock with a pragmatic, step-by-step process focused on immediate risk reduction rather than comprehensive disarmament.
- New START (New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty): A nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia, which limited the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and bombs. It expired in February 2026.
- NPT (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons): A landmark international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament.