President Trump has asserted that U.S. munitions stockpiles have 'never been higher or better,' enough to fight wars 'forever,' a statement made amid an ongoing conflict with Iran.
This optimistic view is rooted in some tangible progress. The U.S. defense industrial base is indeed in the middle of a significant expansion. First, production of 155mm artillery shells has surged dramatically. Output has climbed from about 14,500 shells per month during the early Ukraine war to around 40,000 per month, with a goal of reaching 100,000 per month by mid-2026. This ramp-up is a direct response to the massive quantities of ammunition supplied to allies.
Furthermore, the Pentagon has recently secured massive, multi-year deals with key defense contractors. In early 2026, framework agreements were announced with RTX (Raytheon) and Lockheed Martin to drastically increase the production of critical weapons. These include Tomahawk cruise missiles, SM-6 and SM-3 naval interceptors, and the PAC-3 MSE (Patriot) air defense missile. These contracts are designed to solve long-term inventory problems by creating stable, high-volume production lines.
However, this narrative of strength contrasts sharply with the immediate reality of munitions consumption. The claim of a 'virtually unlimited' supply is not supported by data from recent military operations. First, the U.S. Navy has expended hundreds of high-end interceptors defending against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and is now using more in the conflict with Iran. Analysts and even Navy leaders have warned about the 'alarming rate' of expenditure and the difficulty of reloading ships at sea, directly contradicting the idea of fighting 'forever' on current stocks.
Second, while the new production contracts are impressive, they represent future capacity, not current inventory. The factories and supply chains needed to reach these higher output rates are still being built out, and deliveries take time. The goal for 155mm shell production has already slipped, highlighting the challenges of rapidly scaling up a complex industrial base. Pre-positioned stocks in allied countries exist, but they too have been drawn upon to support partners like Ukraine, proving they are finite.
In essence, the President's statement reflects the ambitious goals of a new industrial policy rather than the current state of stockpiles. While the U.S. is making a credible effort to rebuild its arsenal, the journey from contracts to combat-ready inventory is long, and current supplies, especially for the most advanced weapons, remain constrained.
- 155mm artillery shells: A common type of ammunition used by ground forces in howitzers for long-range indirect fire. Its high consumption rate in recent conflicts has made it a key focus for production increases.
- High-end interceptors: Advanced defensive missiles, such as the SM-6 or PAC-3, designed to shoot down incoming enemy missiles and aircraft. They are expensive and complex to manufacture.
- Tomahawk cruise missile: A long-range, all-weather, subsonic cruise missile used for deep land attack warfare, launched from ships and submarines.