The United Arab Emirates is now considering direct military action against Iran, a significant shift from its long-held policy of restraint.
This situation was primarily sparked by a large-scale U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran on February 28. In response, Iran launched a massive wave of missile and drone attacks targeting Gulf nations, pulling the UAE directly into the conflict. This is fundamentally a story about deterrence and capacity, not ideology.
The consequences for the UAE have been severe. First, while its advanced air defense systems intercepted over 92% of the threats, the sheer volume of attacks overwhelmed daily life. The attacks resulted in casualties, damaged infrastructure, and forced a three-day closure of Dubai's airports, a major international hub. Second, the conflict immediately shocked global markets. Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to spike by about 7%, with Brent crude trading around $85 a barrel.
This combination of direct physical threats and economic shock has changed Abu Dhabi's strategic thinking. Previously, restraint was seen as a prudent way to avoid conflict. Now, it is viewed as an unacceptable vulnerability. This shift is further enabled by allied support, such as France conducting combat air patrols over Emirati airspace, providing a security umbrella that makes offensive options more viable. The UAE's decision to close its embassy in Tehran and assert its "full and legitimate right to respond" signals that diplomatic off-ramps are narrowing.
Ultimately, the UAE's calculation has moved from conflict avoidance to the necessity of re-establishing a credible deterrent. The goal is to stop Iran's attacks and protect its economic and national security, even if it means taking direct military action.
- Glossary
- Risk Premium: An additional price charged for an asset, like oil, to compensate for increased risk of disruption or uncertainty in the market.
- Interceptor: A type of missile designed to shoot down and destroy incoming enemy missiles or aircraft before they reach their target.