The United States and Cuba are officially talking again, marking a potential turning point after months of escalating pressure from Washington.
So, what brought them to the table? It largely boils down to energy. First, the U.S. has been methodically tightening its grip on Cuba's oil supply. After shipments from Venezuela, Cuba's long-time ally, collapsed, the U.S. targeted Cuba's other key supplier, Mexico. The math is stark: the loss of Venezuelan oil, around 35,000 barrels per day, was nearly double what Mexico was supplying. To close this final door, the White House issued a presidential Executive Order on January 29. This order created a framework to impose tariffs on any country sending oil to the island. This 43-day campaign of coercion created a severe energy shock, giving Washington powerful leverage.
This economic pressure quickly translated into social instability. Cuba began experiencing widespread, rolling blackouts, with the government even planning for scenarios where nearly two-thirds of the country would be without power. This crisis fueled public protests, including sit-ins at universities, compounding the social strain from a record month of demonstrations in late 2025. For the Cuban government, the situation became unsustainable. The urgent need to restore stability and provide basic services created a powerful incentive to engage with the U.S. and negotiate a potential off-ramp.
Of course, there are other factors at play, too. Back in the U.S., Senate Democrats filed a resolution to prevent military action against Cuba, which subtly nudges the administration toward a diplomatic solution. At the same time, Washington has long-standing security concerns about Cuba's ties with Russia and China, including naval visits and alleged intelligence sites. Any deal would almost certainly require Cuba to address these security issues and curb foreign intelligence and military presence on its soil.
In essence, this is a classic case of using coercion to create an opening for diplomacy. The U.S. created leverage by exacerbating Cuba's energy crisis, and now both sides are exploring a transactional deal. The path forward is uncertain, but the confirmation of talks signals a new, albeit fragile, chapter in their complex relationship.
- Glossary -
- Executive Order (EO): A directive issued by the U.S. President that has the force of law, used to manage the operations of the federal government.
- State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST) list: A U.S. government list of countries that have "repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism." A designation comes with strict sanctions.
- Coercion: The practice of persuading someone to do something by using force or threats.