A potential US-Iran peace deal is nearly complete, but its fate now rests entirely on a single political decision from President Trump.
Negotiators have reportedly finalized a 60-day memorandum for a ceasefire and the start of formal nuclear talks. This draft even includes plans to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz for oil shipping. However, as Vice President Vance stated, President Trump is "not yet ready" to sign, signaling that while the technical text is ready, the political will is not.
The primary obstacle is Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU). First, over the past year, Iran has accumulated a significant amount—around 400-440 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, which is a short step from the 90% needed for a weapon. Second, the US has made it clear that no sanctions will be lifted until this stockpile is physically removed from Iran. Third, Iran's Supreme Leader has publicly stated the uranium will not be sent abroad. This creates a direct standoff, which is the core issue holding up the agreement.
This diplomatic stalemate has a direct impact on the global economy, particularly oil prices. Since the conflict began in late February, the disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has added what analysts call a "war premium" of about $15 to $20 per barrel of crude oil. This premium reflects the market's fear of a prolonged conflict and supply disruption. Therefore, every statement from Washington and Tehran is being closely watched by traders, as it could cause prices to swing dramatically.
In essence, the path to de-escalation has been mapped out. The challenge is no longer about negotiating clauses but about resolving the fundamental disagreement over Iran's nuclear material. President Trump's decision in the coming days will determine whether the region moves toward peace, causing the war premium to shrink, or back toward conflict, pushing energy prices even higher.
- Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU): Uranium that has undergone a process to increase the concentration of its most fissile isotope. Uranium enriched to 20% or more is considered HEU, and 90% enrichment is considered weapons-grade.
- War Premium: An additional cost added to the price of a commodity, like oil, due to the risks of supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflict or war.
- Strait of Hormuz: A narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the open ocean. It is one of the world's most important strategic chokepoints for oil transportation.