Venezuela's government recently made a bold claim that its crude oil production surged to 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, a number that immediately raised eyebrows in the global energy market.
At the heart of the skepticism is a major numbers gap. While Venezuela reported this high figure, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a key industry watchdog, estimated the country's January output at a much lower 830,000 bpd based on secondary sources. This is a massive difference of over 330,000 bpd, which is too large for markets to ignore. So, what's really going on?
The story begins with a significant policy shift in early January 2026. The U.S. government announced it would indefinitely supervise Venezuelan oil sales, creating a stable and authorized channel for exports to resume after a period of strict embargoes. This decision effectively unlocked the door for Venezuela to start selling its oil to major buyers again, particularly to specialized refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
This policy change directly led to a real and verifiable rebound in exports. Shipments jumped from under 500,000 bpd in December 2025 to around 800,000 bpd in January. This export figure aligns much more closely with OPEC’s production estimate than the government's higher claim. This suggests that Venezuela was likely clearing out oil that was already produced and held in storage, in addition to ramping up new production. The government's 1.16 million bpd figure may have combined both new output and these inventory drawdowns to present a more optimistic picture.
Furthermore, market prices tell a similar story. The discount for Venezuelan heavy-sour crude compared to the global benchmark, Brent, widened in early February. In simple terms, Venezuela had to sell its oil cheaper to attract buyers. This is a classic sign of a seller needing to move a large volume of product quickly, which supports the idea of clearing out stored barrels.
In conclusion, while Venezuela's oil industry is clearly on a path to recovery thanks to the new export agreement, the 1.16 million bpd production claim for January seems overstated. The reality is likely a combination of restarting fields and selling off stored inventory. The true sustainable production level will become clearer in the coming months as independent bodies like OPEC and the IEA release their next reports.
- Glossary
- OPEC: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, an intergovernmental organization of 12 oil-producing countries that coordinates and unifies petroleum policies among its members.
- Heavy-Sour Crude: A type of crude oil that is dense (heavy) and has a high sulfur content (sour). It requires more complex refining processes.
- Brent: A major global price benchmark for crude oil, primarily sourced from the North Sea.