The White House has announced a clear 4-to-6-week timeline for its military campaign against Iran, “Operation Epic Fury.”
This isn't an arbitrary number. First, it reflects the nature of the operation, which began with overwhelming U.S.-Israeli air power on February 28th. The goal is a swift campaign focused on achieving air control and degrading Iran's missile and naval assets. Second, the administration recently gained crucial political support. Congress voted down a measure that would have halted the attacks, effectively giving the White House the political “runway” to see this limited campaign through.
Furthermore, the economic stakes are incredibly high. Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil, have sent shipping insurance and tanker rates to all-time highs. This disruption, along with drone strikes on key Saudi refineries, caused oil prices to surge, with Brent crude nearing $93 a barrel. By setting a deadline, the White House is trying to signal to the markets that the disruption will be temporary, hoping to cap the risk premium baked into oil prices and avoid a major inflationary shock to the global economy.
This military conflict was also preceded by the failure of diplomacy. Just weeks ago, nuclear talks in Geneva ended without a breakthrough, while Iran engaged in provocative military exercises. This diplomatic collapse made a military confrontation more likely. The strategy itself is also based on a precedent: a short, intense air operation against Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 demonstrated that such a campaign could be effective and time-limited.
In summary, this 4-to-6-week timeline is a strategic communication tool. It’s shaped by the operational plan, backed by domestic political wins, and driven by the urgent need to contain economic damage. It aims to reassure allies, markets, and the American public that this is a defined mission, not an open-ended war.
- Glossary
- Strait of Hormuz: A narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean, through which a significant portion of the world's oil supply passes.
- Risk Premium: The extra cost added to a commodity, like oil, due to fears of future supply disruptions.
- OPEC+: An alliance of oil-producing countries, including OPEC members and other major producers like Russia, that coordinates on oil supply.