Chinese authorities have reportedly approved several companies' requests to purchase NVIDIA's high-performance H200 AI chips, signaling a partial thaw in the tech trade freeze.
This development isn't a simple green light; it's more like a two-key system. First, the U.S. government must grant an export license. Then, the Chinese government must give domestic permission to buy. This latest news is about the second key turning, following the U.S. policy shift in late 2025 to a 'case-by-case' review system for these specific chips.
The process began when the U.S. government moved away from a blanket ban. This created a legal pathway for companies like NVIDIA to even apply for licenses to sell to 'approved customers' in China, setting the stage for today's events.
China's own stance has been complex and reveals a carefully managed strategy. In mid-January 2026, customs officials were reportedly told the H200 was 'not permitted'. But just a couple of weeks later, reports emerged that major tech firms like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent received preliminary approvals. This sharp pivot from a block to a selective unlock shows Beijing is carefully managing which companies get access, balancing its AI ambitions with the goal of fostering a domestic chip industry.
From a financial perspective, the numbers involved are substantial. With each H200 chip costing around $27,000, even a moderate approval for 400,000 units could translate to over $10 billion in revenue for NVIDIA. If approvals expand to meet the rumored interest of 2 million units, the potential revenue could exceed $50 billion. This would have a notable impact on NVIDIA's earnings, though it's important to remember this is based on potential scenarios, not confirmed orders.
Ultimately, this is a carefully calibrated reopening, not a floodgate. It provides a potential revenue boost for NVIDIA and access to crucial hardware for Chinese tech firms, but it remains a fragile arrangement. The real test will be whether these approvals convert into firm purchase orders and how both governments navigate the delicate balance of tech competition and trade.
- AI Accelerator: A specialized processor (like a GPU) designed to speed up artificial intelligence and machine learning tasks.
- Export Controls: Government regulations that restrict the sale and transfer of certain goods and technologies to foreign countries for reasons of national security or foreign policy.
- ASP (Average Selling Price): The average price at which a particular product is sold across different markets or channels.