Taiwan is watching the U.S.-Iran war with growing anxiety, as it directly impacts the island's security and deterrence against China.
The core of Taiwan's concern is that the conflict is burning through America's limited supply of advanced standoff weapons, like Tomahawk cruise missiles. These are precisely the munitions the U.S. would rely on in the opening stages of any conflict over Taiwan. In the first few days of the Iran war, the U.S. expended billions of dollars' worth of these high-end missiles to dismantle Iranian air defenses from a safe distance. This initial, heavy use of expensive weapons—a single Tomahawk costs around $3.6 million—is a clear signal that the most critical inventories are being drawn down.
Furthermore, replenishing these stockpiles isn't a quick or easy process. The U.S. industrial base was already facing challenges in meeting demand even before this new conflict. Defense contractors like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin are ramping up production, but it takes time to build these complex weapons. For example, even with production increases, it could take one to three years to replace the missiles used in just a few weeks of combat. This problem is compounded by the fact that Taiwan was already experiencing significant delays in receiving weapons it had purchased from the U.S., including F-16 fighter jets and various munitions.
This situation creates a potential window of vulnerability that directly affects deterrence. The credibility of the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan rests on having a visible and ready supply of these specific long-range weapons. They allow the U.S. to strike targets without risking its own ships and aircraft. If China perceives that this stockpile is depleted, it might be emboldened to test U.S. resolve or even take aggressive action against Taiwan, believing the U.S. lacks the immediate capacity to respond effectively.
This concern is rooted in U.S. law, specifically the Taiwan Relations Act, which obligates Washington to provide Taiwan with defensive arms and maintain the capacity to resist coercion. A depleted arsenal could be interpreted as a failure to meet that obligation, weakening the very foundation of Taiwan's defense strategy.
- Glossary:
- Standoff Weapons: Munitions that can be launched from a distance sufficient to allow attacking personnel to evade defensive fire from the target area.
- Industrial Base: The network of manufacturers and producers that supply a country's military with equipment, from ammunition to aircraft.
- Deterrence: The action of discouraging an action or event through instilling doubt or fear of the consequences.